![]() ![]() Download the microdata behind this poll.Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.08.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. To submit a letter to the editor for publication, write to.New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania Jason Crow, the Democratic candidate, has a modest lead in our poll. New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County ![]() Here are other common ways to weight a poll: In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result. Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. NYT Upshot / Siena College Poll We polled voters in Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. She was backed by Senator Elizabeth Warren and has strongly endorsed single-payer health care.īased on administrative records. Porter prevailed in a crowded Democratic primary field, running to the left of a more business-oriented opponent. Walters won re-election handily in 2016 even as Hillary Clinton carried her district. įirst elected to Congress in 2014, Ms.Porter says the tax law “punishes voters” in this high-tax district compared with people with similar incomes who live in lower-tax states. She says “people are starting to see the benefits of tax reform.” Ms. Walters has supported President Trump on issues like repealing Obamacare and passing a tax overhaul. Although some suburban voters may be uneasy with President Trump, the district is not exactly liberal. This often-redrawn district in Orange County, once a pillar of the Reagan-era Republican Party, has experienced an influx of Asian-American and Latino voters. 40% favorable rating 42% unfavorable 18% don’t know Mimi Walters is the current representative and a former investment banker. 41% favorable rating 24% unfavorable 36% don’t know Katie Porter is a consumer protection lawyer and a professor. The locations shown here are approximate.Įxplore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. Trump’s rallies, the candidate and the crowds draw energy and affirmation from one another, while dismissing any discouraging information.To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. ![]()
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